May 20, 2002

Stage of Bud:   Bloom/Petal Fall at UVM HRC

Fire Blight -  At the 5 sites we have been monitoring ( i.e., Bennington, Dummerston, Shoreham, So. Burlington, So. Hero) with the Maryblyt program using Skybit weather data, none of the sites had more than 2 of the 4 factors necessary for infection up through May 19th.  [See IPM Alert, May 10, for the 4 factors.]    Projecting ahead with the predicted warmer temperatures and predicted rain through May 26,  if blossoms are still present,  the greatest risk for infection would occur in the Dummerston area and in So. Hero on May 25 and 26, respectively.    At  the other sites, it is estimated that the threshold of 198 degree hours >65F will not have accumulated.    If it is warmer and wetter than predicted -- infection is still possible at all locations if blossoms are present.